By Ammar Faheem

Sunday, December 29 – 2008

Some have dubbed it as Pakistan’s victory in the first round; some believe it is a major diplomatic edge that Pakistan has gained in the international community while some think that this may be deception tactics being used by India. Whatever one believes, it is clear that India has ‘toned down’ its war rhetoric and unjustified demands all of a sudden.

War is definitely NOT the option, but not responding to dirt being thrown upon the Pakistani nation without justification is not acceptable either. It is good to see the war rhetoric being toned down.

The past week saw a sudden escalation of tensions after India tried to press the pressure paddle on Pakistan. Pakistan responded well, forcing a sudden u-turn in Indian government claims.

In this analysis, let me take you through how it has all shaped up recently.

December 22 – India threatens to act if world doesn’t

NEW DELHI, Dec 22: India urged the international community on Monday to press Pakistan to weed out from its soil runaway terrorists who it says were behind the recent massacre in Mumbai and posed a great threat to global security.

“We have so far acted with utmost restraint and are hopeful that the international community will use its influence to urge Pakistani government to take effective action,” Mr Mukherjee said. “While we continue to persuade the international community and Pakistan, we are also clear that ultimately it is we who have to deal with this problem. We will take all measures necessary, as we deem fit, to deal with the situation.”

http://dawn.com/2008/12/23/top1.htm

This was the Indian version by December 23 – that they will act on their own if Pakistan does not give-in to their demands. India wanted Pakistan to hand over terrorists and allow them the liberty of ‘surgical strikes’ inside Pakistani territory.

On December 23, the Interpol chief and the United Nations both appreciated Pakistan’s efforts and highlighted to India that evidence had not been provided to Pakistan.

Interpol chief says India yet to provide evidence

ISLAMABAD, Dec 23: Interpol’s secretary-general Ronald Noble said here on Tuesday that India had not provided to him names of suspects and evidences about last month’s terrorist attacks in Mumbai.

Addressing a joint press conference with Adviser to the Prime Minister Rehman Malik at the Interior Ministry, Mr Noble indicated that India did not want Interpol’s help and a joint probe into the case.

http://dawn.com/2008/12/24/top5.htm

UN official praises Pakistan’s cooperation

WASHINGTON, Dec 23: A senior UN official has said that Pakistan has extended full cooperation in implementing UN sanctions against Jamaatud Dawa and Lashkar-e-Taiba.

Richard Barrett, the Coordinator of Security Council’s Al Qaeda and Taliban Sanctions Monitoring Committee, told CNN-IBN in New York that the United Nations had received “across-the-board” cooperation from all Pakistani civil and military agencies.

The committee is responsible for monitoring sanctions imposed by the Security Council on individuals and organisations declared terrorist.

http://dawn.com/2008/12/24/top4.htm

Pakistan meanwhile quietly continued it’s preparations to respond to any Indian threat and the Pakistan Air Force and the Army stepped up their vigilance. PAF fighter jets were seen flying over major cities and sensitive installations across the country. The Pakistan military meanwhile pulled out troops from the Western side and redeployed them along the Pakistan-India border.

The real turning point was Admiral Mullen’s (head of the American military) meeting with General Ashfaq Pervez Kiyani. The top US military chief had come as India’s final attempt to make Pakistan kneel down to Indian demands and allow surgical strikes. In response, he was shown an image taken on December 13, locked by a PAF F-16 fighter jet of an Indian Mirage aircraft that had intruded Pakistani air space. Kiyani said his forces will bring any such plane down the next time. The Pakistani military chief made it clear to Mullen that whether or not the Pakistani civilian government accepts such ‘surgical strikes’, the Pakistan military will react within ‘minutes’ and the response would be decisive. The tone of the Pakistani civilian government, which was appalling and apologetic till then, changed immediately afterwards as Kiyani met the President and Prime Minister. The Indian media cried foul! It was irked that the Pakistan military had forced the civilian government to change its stance.

India, at this point in time, can not afford war – knowing that every inch of Indian soil is under Pakistan’s target. Pakistan enjoys strategic advantages over India that can not be matched and a nuclear conflict can not be ruled out either in case of an India-Pakistan war. If India could afford a full-fledged war with Pakistan, it could have gone for it way back in 1999 when the war was fought only at Kargil.

True to the above assessments, the Indian government buckled under pressure – humiliated diplomatically in the international corridors of power – the Indian tone changed all of a sudden.

India blames media for war hysteria

…However, a senior government minister was quoted on Friday as saying that Indian, Pakistani and American media were responsible for creating hype about an imminent war between India and Pakistan.

http://dawn.com/2008/12/27/top6.htm

Singh tones down rhetoric

NEW DELHI, Dec 23: A day after Foreign Minister Pranab Mukherjee came close to creating a scare when he declared that India might act on its own if the world failed to get Pakistan to arrest alleged terrorists named by New Delhi, Prime Minister Manmohan Singh intervened to tone down the rhetoric, saying war was not the issue.

http://dawn.com/2008/12/24/top1.htm

This spread many smiles across the Pakistani nation and people expressed pride in their armed forces and the response put forward by General Kiyani and the Pakistan Air Force. Then moved in the National Assembly by passing a strong and unanimous resolution against India, demanding India to ‘dismatle the Indian terror network’.

NA backs govt efforts to defuse tension: Unanimous resolution condemns India’s ‘war hype’

ISLAMABAD, Dec 24: ….“Calls upon the international community to ensure that India also dismantles its terror networks affecting peace in the region and stop regional destabilisation moves. “Urges India to exercise restraint from such activities which undermine Pakistan’s sovereignty and to stop the hostile propaganda which seeks to cover their intelligence failure and promotes such activities which do not serve the cause of peace in the region.

“Resolves that Pakistani nation is united and stands ready to defend its honour and dignity as well as Pakistan’s sovereignty, political independence and territorial integrity….

http://dawn.com/2008/12/25/top1.htm

In his meeting with the Saudi Foreign minister Saud Al-Faisal, the Indian foreign minister Pranab Mukherjee had to say that terrorism has nothing to do with any specific country and is not a bilateral issue between India and Pakistan.

In latest developments, the Indians totally back-tracked from its previous stance of not providing evidence, saying that evidence WILL BE PROVIDED once investigations have been completed. Now how does the world justify pointing fingers at Pakistan within minutes of the Mumbai attack?

India denies issuing ultimatum

…Denying any ultimatum being set for Pakistan to act, he said: “No ultimatum was set. There is no question of any ultimatum. Nobody has set any ultimatum.”…

http://dawn.com/2008/12/29/top5.htm

New Delhi says no extra troops sent to border

…India on Saturday dismissed as “baseless and speculative” reports of moving additional troops to its western borders in the wake of tension with Pakistan, Press Trust of India said…

http://dawn.com/2008/12/28/top4.htm

Like the title of this analysis suggests, India it seems has buckled under the realization that it can not fight a full war with Pakistan. It is not 1971. The Pakistani armed forces have transformed into a large, modern military outfit.

India also needs to realize that India is NOT America and Pakistan is NOT Afghanistan.

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