A Leaderless nation: What Next?

By: Ammar Faheem
Tuesday, August 19, 2008

With the resignation of President Musharraf who had gained himself a notorious image in Washington for his tough stance on the Pakistani Nuclear program and the functioning of the ISI, Pakistan has effectively been left leaderless. There is political vacuum in the air and the nation anxiously waits for what comes next.

Let us analyze why it happened all so quickly and what the nation should brace itself for.

Why it happened?

Ever since February the 18th, the PPP had never agreed upon the impeachment of the President. They knew they were in power thanks to the blessings of the NRO. But what exactly made them take a U-turn?

We have all been talking about the CIA-RAW-Afghan game in Pakistan, further supported by the Zardari regime. The final and unbearable blow came from the Presidency when he and the armed forces expressed their resentment to a notification from the cabinet division which put Pakistan’s premier defense agency, ISI, under the MoI (Ministry of Interior). This was too much for the US to accept and Zardari was given the nod to go out in public and have Musharraf impeached.

For complete US control, it is important for them to see the influence of the Pakistan army and the ISI neutralized and loyal to the already sold-out political administration.

The resistance from Musharraf on the ISI issue was the final nail in the coffin apart from a host of other issues which include:

• Not committing support from Pakistani territory in case the US attacks Iran
• Strengthening ties with China and China itself economically by granting it access to the Gawadar port
• Not giving-in to US demands on the Pakistani Nuclear program
• Not handing over A.Q. Khan to the USA
• Not letting the USA to operate in the FATA (Pakistani Territory)

and several more. With what they believe is democracy in place, the US is now going to act at will unless the nation receives positive news from the Pakistan army which now appears to be our only hope.

What Next?

The almost non-existent government in Islamabad is a coalition of two ideologically opposed politicians/political parties. It is a matter of common understanding that they have stood together amidst severe differences over the past few months BECAUSE of a common enemy, former President Musharraf. With him out now, it is difficult to see them standing together for very long. Both parties have been severely victimized by each other in the past and hold a totally different opinion on several matters of national importance.

Let us have a look at the reasons which will result in an eminent split of the coalition:

• Nawaz Sharif has constantly pressurized the PPP into accepting his demands and has been successful when it comes to the ouster of Musharraf while effectively keeping himself and his party out of the government and the cabinet. He shares the success and distances himself from all the short comings of this government in Islamabad.

  The PPP will definitely not tolerate this for long (considering them to be anywhere close to sanity) and will ask Nawaz Sharif to step into the government with full strength that his party deserves.

• Nawaz Sharif will try to stay away from the government while pushing for the complete restoration of the deposed judges.
• The issue of the next President of Pakistan will also be a scare for the integrity of this fragile and fabricated coalition. Zardari will not want a President from any other party with the powers of article 58-2(b) of the constitution in his/her pocket. The NRO could be revoked any time too.

Nawaz Sharif has distanced himself from almost everything that is going wrong in the country and in the end the entire blame will rest on the PPP government. Sharif seems to have different plans and will succeed only in case the PPP makes an absolute fool of itself.

The war on terror continues, and it will, because it is an instrument for the complete destabilization of Pakistan. They no longer have Musharraf to put the blame on. Who will be the scapegoat now?

I am also worried about the control of the ISI, as this government is hell bent upon doing anything to please its masters in the United States.

This government has also reportedly cut funds for the Strategic Plans Division responsible for sustaining, progressing and protecting Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal. With the several layers of security and ambiguity to the Pakistani Nuclear program, this is being dubbed as the only possible way of slowly getting rid of the Pakistani nukes. No money, no development, no progress!

Let us wait and see how this government reacts to issues regarding territorial sovereignty. They appear too weak to stop or respond to any direct threats to Pakistan.

With Musharraf around, nationalists had someone to own in the government. And like a friend of mine described, it feels as if we have lost our independence. While this might not be the case on paper, the way the people now in-charge behaved on their visit to USA and the way they are ready to do things for the US before it has to take the pain of even asking is scary. Every reasonable Pakistani today is worried about what is to happen in the coming days.

While Musharraf had been cornered and sidelined because of his own mistakes (the NRO for example), the nation still hoped that may be it would be him who would stand up and take care of the leadership vacuum. The media may have shown jubilation on the streets, but it could not cover those who sat at home distressed and worried about what is to become of their homeland.